Tuesday, December 10, 2013

So's how my 5 year old "Obama Capital Strike" prediction holding up?

Tragically well, I'm afraid.  If you recall, well actually you wouldn't recall because you weren't there, back then I predicted that the result of Barack Obama's election and his fulfillment of his campaign promises (there was still some desperate, naive hope that he'd been lying to his base) would be a swingeing capital strike that would result in below normal business investment, employment and wage growth.  And the result:  yes, yes, yes!  Only it's been worse than I had thought possible.  To review:  the key to increasing living standards is investment in productive assets which increase our output of goods and services or increase the quality of said outputs.  The key to higher living standards, therefore is high levels of private investment.  So it's kind of a drag to find out that our current record of business investment five years out has peaked at what would be considered 'depths of recession' levels in any previous era. Sigh.

Attaboy #1:  Business Investment peaking at 'depths of recession' level
Private investment

Ah, my progressive interlocutors object:  "but the government makes investments.  Indeed all government spending is investment in our view, especially the corrupt and criminal bits.  It's just the war and that lying son of a bitch Johnson, no wait, it's the war and that lying son of a bitch Bush that caused us to cut government spending".  Oookaaaaay, so lets look at government spending.  After truly intergalactic levels of government Meth in '09 the level of government spending has fallen back to merely peace time record 'drunken sailor' levels.  And quite a few cities have gone bankrupt blowing their wads and many more cities and a surprising number of states should go bankrupt.  Yet....ixnay on the rowthgay.

Attaboy 2: Government spending to exhaustion and sometimes bankruptcy
government spending as a percent of GDP

Ok, so that's great news, thanks Government, keep up the good work but wait, the real culprit must be those green eyeshade bastards at the Federal Reserve.  They're probably secretly stockpiling greenbacks in an attempt to recreate the 1930s deflation.  I knew I saw a bunch of old dudes in white spats going into the Fed building.  Curse you J. P. Morgan!  But wait, J.P. Bernanke has been shoveling, well actually duplicating money out of the Fed as fast as his little fingers can hit Control D over and over and over again  Indeed both here and in the other centers of Fraudulent, oops I mean Fiat currency, the fickle fingers of the Fed have been tapping steadily for over five frickin' years.  Unfortunately Super-key-ins (get it? super Keynes? sometimes I crack myself up) turns out to be quite a bit less magnetic with the economy than Superfly was with the ladies.

Attaboy #3 Fed 'Magic' gives economy monetary HIV
 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet










And one result of all this hope 'n change and 'reform' and governmental 'innovation' has been a rather unsurprising (to me) collapse in the labor market.  This corresponds to a rather Depression era level of true unemployment.  Of course as soon as the Dems change the definition of employed to anyone getting a government check (to the universal praise of the mainstream PRess) this problem will instantly solve itself.  So we're cool then?  Not so fast kemosabe.

Attaboy #4:  You ain't gotta job, I ain't gotta job, Job ain't gotta job


Because the median bear in the woods is getting a mite skinny to keep, well, fertilizing the woods at his traditional rate.  As the demand for labor plummets due to sagging investment and increasingly bankrupt governments, household incomes deflate like a hundred and fifty million leaky balloons, back to levels not known since Barack Obama was a Webelos in the Hyde Park Little Lefties Cub Scout Pack and Macrame Collective.

Attaboy #5  Where's the rest of me (pay packet)?


The pack leader objects:  "but it's those bastard businesses who are making tons of money and not 'spreading it around' the way the Lightbringer said they should and besides, they won't buy our macrame" No duh.  Which brings us to a teachable moment:  the reason people who have lots of money have lots of money is that they utilize this attribute called Prudence, no, not the snotty girl who always cried if you spit on her, the behavior.  You see Prudence teaches us (when she's not crying) that when inexperienced and supremely ignorant ("and I've learned that buying insurance is complicated") anti-business activists get control of the national government whether in England, France, Argentina or Burkina Faso, whatever shit is lying around almost inevitably hits the fan.  And like the Prudence loving (not spitting) chaps they are they choose to harvest past profits and keep as much of their money away from the shit (stirrers? eaters? grinners?) as possible, hoping against hope for adults to retake the Eagle Throne of our elective monarchy.  And since it's been over 5 years now, their profits are awesome in proportion to their tiny investments.

Attaboy #6 Rich! Rich!  Hot damn they're gettin' Rich!


Which has the looney left shrieking for their heads like 3rd ex wives shriek for alimony.  "Lets punish 'em!  Let's tax the hell out of 'em! Lets, lets, YEEEEEAAAAAARRRGGGHGHHH!"

Which is why it was so cool that Barack Obama got in front of everybody to bitch about income distribution, " yelling 'look! minimum wage squirrel over there" while busily beavering away at legalizing thirteen million illegals and doubling immigration levels from one to two million a year while continuing to shove Obamadon'tcare down the nation's throat without benefit of lubrication.  Because what we really need in an environment where tens of millions of un or semi skilled laborers can't find work is higher prices for labor, big new health insurance bills and a boatload more Democrat voters to elect even smarter lightbringers to deal with the ever increasing unemployment rate.

To which I give the Ultimate in Attaboys to our Honorary Capital Strike Team Captain:  Barack Obama

Attaboy Barack!  We couldn't be this screwed without ya!

PS: some will say "we just had 3.6% GDP growth - BHO's policies are vindicated!  Sorry Tonto, but by now we should have had multiple quartes of 5% plus growth and half a dozen at 3.6%.  We are so far down growth wise I question whether we can get back up without hitting Life Alert.  And who's going to come pick us up, the incontinent elder paraplegic in Brussels or the semi-crazed emphysemic from Beijing?  Or maybe the Canadian and Australian duo of Tiny Tim and Tom Thumb can somehow use their 20 to 35 pound frames to lever our 315 pounds of lard off of Mexico.

No, it's time to sit back and enjoy three more years of BHO parking his golf cart on the nation's trachea blandly saying "who? moi? why that's racist!" while he practices his short game.

God help us every one.

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