Monday, May 05, 2014

Which state's residents want to stay. And leave.

A new Gallup survey is out asking residents whether or not they wanted to move to another state.  States with the most loyal residents include Montana, Hawaii, Texas and Minnesota.  Those with the most residents who can't wait to leave include New York, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey.  There doesn't seem to be a weather bias because in general bad weather states do the best (excepting Hawaii, if you consider TX to be 'bad' weather as I do).  It seems it's more a function of satisfaction with the state of the state.

Is it political/cultural?  Once again Red states are disproportionately popular with nine in the top two categories for staying vs blue having 3 and 4 purples.  In the bottom two categories, there are 5 reds, 10 blues and 1 purple. I think this probably has more to do with with diverse states being less satisfied yet TX and HI are very popular and very diverse.

Is it age?  Perhaps this is simply a reflection of the fact that old people don't want to move.  It is true that of five of the top ten are among the states with the oldest median age.  And five of the youngest states are in the list of the states with the highest propensity to move.  Yet Colorado has the 7th and Texas has the second youngest median age in the country and yet are two of the least likely to move states.

Is it prosperity?  Six states on the least likely to move list have among the ten lowest unemployment rates in the nation.  But Vermont (3.6) and Louisiana (4.5) have a high propensity to move despite being among the lowest unemployment.  Previous outlier Texas (#17, 5.5) does better than average, particularly when you remember that it's both the second youngest and second most 'diverse' state.

And unlike almost all the other top rated states which tend to have relatively little in migration or diversity (well except Hawaii, but would you want to leave paradise?  Well would you?), perhaps half of Texas' population are immigrants and half are from a 'minority' group yet it is a place with incredible resident loyalty.  Where in the hell does that come from?
U.S. State Residents' Desire to Move to a Different State, 2013
So what is up with the Lone Star State? In my opinion there is something unique about the Texas culture and the institutions that underpin it that drives its success and the tremendous loyalty and enthusiasm that its residents have for what is a rather hot, flat, bug infested place.  Much more than the rest of the nation Texas seems like a place where people still think that the future will be better.  Which is why it's sad that Dems are so sanguine (rightfully so in my opinion) about changing demographics turning Texas into a blue policy showcase.  You know, like Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland - diverse places whose residents despise living there.

Of course misery loves political saviors, doesn't it?

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