I think we ought to resurrect prediction markets and require those predicting doom and demanding massive change to bet one year's salary and bennies on each of 5, 10, 15, and 20 year climate predictions. If they are right within 2 standard deviations they double their money if not they forfeit it. They all should take that bet, right? Hell I'm sure Tom Steyer would stake them the funds.
What do you think?
Don’t expect full acceptance anytime soon, however. In fact, a recent Nature paper defends the accuracy of the very models that failed to predict the very pause that didn’t exist that now does exist but only because the models were wrong. No, this is not a Zen koan: it’s modern climate science.
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