First: we don't have a lot of leverage there. In geopolitical terms, the US is like a 5 card draw poker player that usually gets more extra cards than the rules allow - in some cases up to three extra jacks. Where we don't have an edge is in the core of the Eurasian landmass - where Ukraine is. There, we just get the same deal as everyone else and the only thing we have going for us is we have the biggest bank roll and can stay in the game for a long time.
In situations where we have 'free cards' we tend to act aggressively, in cases like the Ukraine where we have no edge, we act cautiously, bluff and wait for the other guy to make a mistake. Not very gratifying but necessary.
Second: The old "Russia is never as strong as she looks nor as weak as she appears" is very true right now. While flush with petro dollars that make it seem richer than it is Russia has one half our population, one eighth our economy, is completely dependent on the high price of oil and gas to keep the country solvent and significant restless and resentful minority problems. It has a serious male premature mortality crisis and without immigration - which will stop with the end of high energy prices - the population will continue to fall. The country has never gone through the type of necessary modernising reforms that Japan and Germany did. Instead the defeat of the Romanov state was followed by decades of what can only be described as "anti reform", war and then collapse. Russia has immense human and physical assets - before WWI it was mentioned in the same breath as the US as one of the "rising nations" - but is corrupt and poorly run. Its military - while large - is poorly armed by our standards and with poor morale to boot. It's only ace is that it has nukes. But Russia can't project power very far and doesn't have much leverage beyond the old Soviet Union. Outside of the Eurasian core, the US has to screw up to give them an opening - like we did in Syria.
Third: Putin is making the same mistake that the Romanovs and the Bolsheviks made: they all believed that a big Russia that encompassed its neighbors and their resentful nationalities was the best way for Russia to be strong. Yet the history of the last 120 years contradicts that judgement over and over again. In 1905 shambolic, multicultural Russia was beaten by much smaller but racially cohesive Japan in an event that almost broke the Romanovs. Later in WWI another much smaller, racially cohesive state: Germany beat Russia with one hand tied behind it's back, destroying Romanov rule for good. The Bolsheviks then forced a civil war and reconquest of the near abroad that killed millions and embittered tens of millions more. After that, Stalin murdered millions to collectivize agriculture and to see off his racist, nationalist paranoia. Then the Sovs barely survived another assault by the Germans that destroyed European Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, killing 20 millions. The Germans would have succeeded had they not (once again!) fought with one arm tied behind their backs and if the Sovs hadn't gotten a large amount of support from the US. Then after barely surviving, they expanded their empire again to dominate more resentful nationalities to the west, requiring more soldiers and money that they did not have, finally leading to collapse in 1991.
Big Russia is a big problem for core Russia - it doesn't make Russia stronger, it drains Russia's resources in holding onto resentful neighbors who could be allies were they not so abused (Imagine the mess if the US had conquered Canada and Mexico rather than absorbing them into our economic and geopolitical systems based on their self interest). It puts the focus on foreign policy and away from domestic reform. If Russia could summon just half the cohesion and focus among the Great Russians that the Japanese and Germans were able to achieve it would be a vastly more powerful state.
But instead they're picking on, abusing and alienating their neighbors. I actually have some sympathy for the Crimean and eastern Ukrainian initiatives as they focus on reuniting the Russian majority regions (regardless of how they came to be that way) with Russia. But the way they're doing it loses them 10 friends for every one Russian they repatriate. But hey! this is Russia - this is how they roll.
And one more thing: With respect to Russia the Europeans are like a drunk, loud mouthed girlfriend in a biker's bar: they are constantly saying and doing provocative things and then when things get out of hand, expecting us to step in and vindicate their honor.
No comments:
Post a Comment