Noemie Emery wrote a very good column in which she points out
Can anyone name the most recent American president who ran to succeed a two-term president of his or her party who had an approval number of well under 50 percent, and won? Nobody can, because nobody did.
Several people did spin out a one-party run for more than three cycles, but the circumstances were special, and the occasions were rare. In 1908 and 1988 William Howard Taft and the elder George Bush succeeded Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, but the latter two presidents were already legends.
Even Bill Clinton at the height of his popularity couldn't pull it off. This places the relentlessly left veering beltway in a conundrum. What to do? Well job number one is try to get the best damn Republican from their perspective that they possibly can. And if you watch Christ Matthews, Bob Woodward and Howard Finemen three of the greasiest emininence grise's in Beltway politics in this episode of Hardball you understand what the Beltway answer is shaping up to be:
Which is fine by me: I agree with his restrained attitude on foreign and defense policy - sort of an adult, thoughtful version of Obama's sophomoric "don't do stupid shit" routine. And I really like his social libertarianism which will go a long ways towards defanging the gentry liberals who really, really don't want to see a class war. And on economics and the role of the government he's the right and probably the most right wing candidate that can be elected anywhere in the world today. His only weakness is he's got the same lack of executive experience as Obama. But he hasn't been raised to sneering smugness by a lifetime of lavish praise and make work jobs, he's actually made his own way in the world. He also comes from a party that for all its faults values structure, discipline and management much more than the chaos you saw from the Clinton administration or the naive golfing passivity of the Obami.
And Hillary Clinton? From the Beltway's perspective why not let her be the nominee: she can chum the water while the Dems raise up a new crop of contenders not crushed or tainted by the Obama fiasco. Besides everyone is sick to death of the Clintons and a crushing defeat will hopefully put a stake through their undead hearts and keep their incubus Chelsea at bay. But watch the vid because it's fascinating to see Chris Matthews - a legendary leg tingling beltway battler incorporating the latest electoral information into his bayesian political model and beginning the long hard process of adapting rightward.
You heard it here first. Happy days are here again!
No comments:
Post a Comment