Wednesday, November 05, 2014

If Republicans are held in such low esteem, why do they utterly dominate state level governance?

I am frankly astonished at their dominance..

Republicans control at least 31 of 50 governorship after pickups in troubled MA, MD and Il. And at least 66 of 98 partisan legislative chambers.

As of 1:40 p.m. on November 5, seven chambers flipped to Republican control that had been held by the Democratic Party going into the election. This means the Republicans will control at least 64 chambers starting in January 2015. The seven new chambers are the Minnesota State House, the Nevada State House, the New Hampshire State House, the New Mexico State House, theWest Virginia State House, the New York State Senate and theNevada State Senate. One chamber that was held by the Democrats has gone to an even R-D split (the West Virginia State Senate). Additionally, five legislative chambers are undecided as of 1:40 p.m. EST on November 5. More here.

These are astounding numbers. MN, NY, NV (both), Virginia!. Democrats haven't been this far down since the 1920s.  What could account for the incredible and sustained success of Republicans at the state level?  I think there are three things:

1. States are about nuts and bolts governance.  There are fewer 'hot button' issues at the state level so the disadvantages that the GOP sometimes has on cultural and racial issues don't matter as much here. 
2. For these nuts and bolts services GOP states are just much better run. And at lower cost.  Virtually all of the really bankrupt states are Blue states that have been run by Democrat monopolies.  California, New York until today, Illinois until Today, New Jersey until Christie, Massachusetts until today, Maryland until Today, Rhode Island, Connecticut and so on.
3. GOP governors have gotten a reputation of being called in to straighten out one party Democrat state messes:  Most recently in New Jersey, Wisconsin, Michigan and now in Massachusetts, Maryland and Illinois.  Their success has improved the brand.

The people are saying pretty clearly that they trust GOP governments to take care of state business.  Which suggests that if the Republicans run a Rand Paul they could neutralize a lot of hot button issues while retaining their significant advantage on on on nuts and bolts governance.  Boy I'd like to see Rand try.

Not surprisingly, dominance of the GOP at the state level bodes ill for the Dems.  Obviously if they can sustain their advantage until 2020 redistricting now massively favors the Republicans as it did in 2010 with significant benefits for the House of Representatives.  But beyond that, the control that Republicans have has been used to damage key components of the Democrat coalition, specifically disestablishing Unions - both private and public - in WI, OK, MI, IN and others and cutting trial lawyers' golden rice bowl down to size with a significant tightening of tort laws to the point that in OK and TX they have actually adopted a modified British 'loser pays' system.  This means less money and fewer foot soldiers for Dem candidates at all levels.

All in all it's an amazing outcome that bodes well for Republican governance at all levels if they draw the right conclusions.

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