Thursday, April 03, 2014

Lord save us from useless academic biomedical research

SUNSHINE, ON MY SHOULDER, MAKES ME SLIMMER: People exposed to earlier sunlight are leaner than those who get afternoon light. “The influence of morning light exposure on body weight was independent of an individual’s physical activity level, caloric intake, sleep timing, age or season. It accounted for about 20 percent of a person’s BMI.”

This is a good example of the correlation is causation fallacy.  In all likelihood lower BMI and getting up early are correlated with a third unmeasured factor like metabolism.  Without controlling for genetic inheritance these kinds of studies don't really provide much insight. And there are hundreds of variables so when you throw one set against another, you're bound to correlate somewhere. Which just confuses the hoi polloi - they spin from one thing to another:  lowfat! high protein! exercise a lot! don't exercise too much!  no booze! regular booze! get up early! get enough sleep!  And there's always someone with an axe to grind or a product to sell to pitch the latest correlation.

The real problem is that the government provides academics with so much money to do this stuff.  No capitalist would fund such an obviously non-actionable study.  This type of dreck is only valued in the academic world because they need to make their publishing quota.  The NIH's incentives are all screwed up.  It encourages stupid research like this, it promotes lowest common denominator 'consensus' research over higher risk, higher return paths and it is immune to change from the outside because it gets its money from the Fed magic money machine.

One more way the Feds are screwing us on behalf of rent seekers.

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