The transformative technology of the 2015-2025 period could be 3D printing. This has the potential to remake the economics of manufacturing from a large-scale industry back to an artisan model of small design shops with access to 3D printers. In other words, making stuff, real stuff, could move from being a capital intensive industry into something that looks more like art and software. This should favor the American skill set of creativity.
The cost of 3D printers has dropped tenfold in five years. That’s the real kicker here — 3D printing is riding the Moore’s Law curve, just as 2D printing started doing in the 1980s.
Disruptive technologies have certain attributes: they evolve rapidly relative to traditional technologies so no player can stay on top for long, they radically change not just the cost but the cost structure of production. And they allow much greater scope for fulfilling wants and needs that heretofore could not be fulfilled. Fun.
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