Sunday, February 23, 2014

Which of these economic indicator charts is not like the others?


I've been perusing Zero Hedge, which is always dangerous because it mixes astute analysis with some of the most gap jawed drivel I've ever seen.  Must be Tyler Durden's fight club brain damage. But its chartwork is awesome.  I put together my latest pessimist scenario from them.  So thanks Mr. Crazy, keep bangin' your head against the rocks.

As the Fed has threatened us with taperism, there's been a flight from emerging markets to 'quality'. Unfortunately, the "quality" is deteriorating steadily.
You can really see the flight to quality it in this chart.
And in this chart - investors are increasingly frightened of risk.  But in ZIRP there's negative returns on risk free or low risk assets so stock market speculation based upon free debt has become the answer.  And the debt is free until you can't make the margin call.
Yet while the markets are rockin' and rolling in a credit fueled speculative bubble, the nation is slipping deeper and deeper into a funk.  People are losing  hope which is surprising given all this change.  And the warm, suffocating arms of the welfare plantation have never been more inviting.  Go ahead, walk into the 'light'
Things could be worse.  We could be China.  But of course we have to live with what happens to the Mao Dynasty. And dynasties come and go.
And the wheels are about to pop off of the Great Proletarian Economic Revolution.
Unless you think that China isn't subject to the laws of nature, because its rotting credit boom is directly tied to the Feds QEaserama.

All the charts above explain what is happening.  Only one explains who it's for.  It's not for working Americans, it's not for the poor, it's for the investor class and their institutions.  And without inflationary finance the stock market crashes.  With inflationary finance the stock market will crash. 
 I used to hold to the view that the Great Recession was the wages of decades of sinfully papering over economic contractions with easy money, saving up the pain for later.  I now believe that the Great Recession was just the last moderately sized myocardial infarction before the Big One.  Reality's warning sign.  But now we're even fatter, more sedentary, smoking more and our heroin habit has popped up again.

Income Inequality and All that Jazz
Incidentally, if there is any substance to the income inequality issue it has to do not with earned income but with state rent seeking.  Specifically, the privatization of profits and the socialization of losses in the financial markets.  The QE and previous loose money periods designed to goose the financial markets and avoid the inevitabe structural adjustment have delivered great low risk wealth to the investor class but the crash when it comes will be paid for by everyone.  Particularly the working and lower middle class jobless.

Taxing current income more or increasing the minwage or layering a seventh regulatory body on the Finance industry that increases opacity and unpredictability is not going to get the Ginis out of the bottle, much less contribute to human flourishing.  The best thing that we could do to reduce inequality would be to eliminate the economic rents that the state delivers to the affluent, starting with the moral hazard of "to big to fail".  But this administration yells about inequality while entrenching TBTF and socialization of losses.  It also chose the 'super-dove' as Fed Chair.  Which means more private 'gains' to inevitably be converted into social losses.

So who really gives a damn about the little guy?

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