Every time someone reads this blog an angel gets its wings. - Zuzu, the Elder
Friday, December 21, 2018
Hammock Dream
Sunday, September 02, 2018
On Art
Written to an artist friend.
Any creative person confronts the need to balance the muse inside with what other human beings need and value. Both the creator and the consumers of the created are free to do as they please. At some level a 'creation' only becomes 'art' or 'literature' or even a 'product' if a another human being values it enough to consume or collect it. Sometimes this transaction occurs easily and immediately resulting in fame and fortune, sometimes it occurs sequentially and fame arrives later, even posthumously. For most writers, artists and creative entrepreneurs it does not come at all. That is the burden of freedom. The right to do what you will encompasses the right to do that which no one else understands or values. And the right to keep doing it even if it never pays off. That's why artists have muses and not investment managers in their souls. Freedom is a two edged sword, red with the the blood of its adherents.
Saturday, July 21, 2018
The Democrat's biggest problem
Throughout my life the left has dominated comedy: they defined what was mock-able, what was funny. It's helped Dems sweeten their increasingly authoritarian "eat your peas" agenda so voters will swallow it.
But now the Great God Identity deems most humor to be blasphemous. And without it what is left of the left is mostly stridency and hectoring.
It's not a good look.
Did SNL really do a funereal lament for HRC's defeat? What a....non joke.
Republicans have become the insurgents the anti-establishment
https://ricochet.com/535983/the-left-gives-up-on-comedy/
Monday, July 16, 2018
The Cultural Marxism underlying the NYT's latest Trump Critique
"Just a few hours after President Trump doused expectations of extracting any confession from President Vladimir V. Putin on Russia’s election meddling when they meet on Monday"
Monday, June 18, 2018
Sad to see Mike Hayden humiliate himself.
Someone who lives him should intervene.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/michael-hayden-one-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-other/
Saturday, May 19, 2018
Why is Bill Clinton still a headliner? Power worship.
Dems would get a lot better hearing from social conservatives if Willie 'Lolita' Jeff Clinton wasn't still humping his dessicated body all over the fruited plain.
But the party of state power worships power. So Willie's Willie runs wild with no consequences.
What a dick.
https://nypost.com/2018/05/19/its-time-for-bill-clinton-to-take-a-walk-in-the-chappaqua-woods/
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
More Evidence of California Gnosticism
It seems that the 'progressive' movement and it's leading American polity: California has a bad case of Gnosticism. The CA legislature keeps passing policies that viewed economically are insane. One is its mandating of 100% 'renewable' electricity generation - primarily wind and solar. The result has been constantly escalating retail electricity prices (by contrast Texas, CA's biggest competitor has retail rates around 7 cents).
And the tragic (but for a conservative like me, funny) thing is that careful economic analysis in Germany (which is also beset by wild energy Gnostics) shows that the 100% goal is unachievable. Well at least by an economy that wishes to remain 'advanced' and 'wealthy'. This is in spite of the grand announcements that 'renewables' are getting cheaper than even natural gas. The problem of course is that 'renewables' aren't reliable. So to deliver reliable electricity every MW of renewables must be backstopped by a MW of quick starting natural gas generators. Or many MWs of even more wildly expensive and environmentally dubious 'storage'.
But why let reality invade the fantasies of Coastal California? Where electricity is probably less important than any other place in the world. Warm winters and cool summers seem to breed madness. Or at least self centered cruelty.
California doubles down on crazy with a solar panel requirement on all new homes
It’s tough to overstate the high cost of housing in California, even relative to the state’s high incomes. In San Jose, the average home costs 10.3 times the area’s median income, according to Demographia’s International Housing Affordability Survey.
Thursday, May 10, 2018
At least 70% of the most important scientific "findings" can't be replicated
Governments are terrible producers
Tuesday, May 08, 2018
"How is it that we hear the loudest yelps for feminism among the worst exploiters of women?"
Scneiderman, Spitzer and Weiner Oh My!
"How is it that we hear the loudest yelps for feminism among the worst exploiters of women?" Isn't it obvious: "that's the way you get the most action".
Saturday, May 05, 2018
The lack of self awareness among our press is epic. Then again most of them are ”27 year olds who literally know nothing".
Friday, May 04, 2018
California SC Kills Gig Economy in CA
Other states are hungrier. And less arrogant. We Texans look forward to another prosperous decade feeding off of the beached whale that CA is increasingly becoming.
Wednesday, May 02, 2018
Brass Balls Barry had to send pallet loads of cash....
"BREAKING: North Korea has released all U.S. detainees at the request of President Trump."
Brass Balls Barry had to fly pallet loads of small denomination terror cash to the Mullahs to achieve this.
Even after he'd already removed sanctions, "paid back" money for arms the Shah ordered and unfroze 110 billion in assets.
I guess some people just aren't good negotiators....
Monday, April 30, 2018
Dershowitz on Mueller's sordid FBI history
If he were a mobster Robert Mueller would be the target of a major investigation. Unless he was working with the Robert Mueller FBI. Then he'd be safe.
"Respected" doesn't mean what it used to mean. At the link.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/alan-dershowitz-maybe-robert-mueller-should-be-investigated
Thursday, April 26, 2018
Run Yankee Run - How migration patterns contradict the "Narrative"
The states that voted for Donald Trump, particularly in the south, did so because they are living in the past. Their economies moribund, their values hateful, their personal prospects poor, they cling to their guns and their bibles. By contrast, Clinton voting states are the future: their cities are 'booming' filling up with the young and the educated, they are egalitarian, wealthy, sophisticated.
So how could one test this claim? You could go through a whole litany of statistics and data and compare the two sets of states along all sorts of dimensions - sort of like US News does for colleges or other 'best of' listings. But that's susceptible to what I call "League Table Manipulation". The people doing the rankings tend to pick criteria that are important to them and it turns out that the entities that they are rooting for do well against the criteria that they picked. It's artificial, academic and easily manipulated by whomever is creating the rankings.
The best way to test the attractiveness of any service, entity or country is to see how the 'customer' responds to it - what economists call a 'market test'. You don't evaluate the success of a church by its doctrine but by it's attendance. You don't proclaim a product great based upon statistics, you do it based upon sales. This is because it's only when people deploy their time and money that they reveal their true preferences. You can survey people all day long but you'll never get the truth until you see what they actually choose when no one is watching (if you don't believe me, ask President Hillary Clinton).
This is particularly true when they make choices about moving to a different city or state. People make these moves based upon a complex set of calculations that vary from person to person. They balance wages, job opportunities, the cost of living, the quality of public services, the attractiveness of the physical environment, taxation levels, how welcome they feel and so on. There is no way to create a set of ranking criteria that could reflect this complicated decision. In fact most people couldn't even describe their true decision process to you.
And among all the moves people can make within the US, the most powerful statement of preferences is when people move from one region of the US to another. It is very expensive in money, time, relationships and disruption terms to move your family far away from where it has been established. It's also a differentiating behavior: the US is filled with the descendants of people who when they looked at their lives in the "old country", found them wanting and did something about it. Which is one reason the US is such a dynamic country: the people here are (in evolutionary terms) 'selected' for independent initiative and effort. The same, on a smaller scale holds for domestic migrants from one region of the US to another: they tend to be more aggressive, more dynamic, less willing to tolerate the status quo. Which I suppose is of benefit to the regions they move to.
So I decided to look at the US Census' Domestic Migration statistics between the four regions of the United States: Northeast, South, Midwest and West to see what that reveals about the preferences of Americans. If the 'narrative' is true then we should see the young, the educated, minorities and non natives flocking to the Northeast and the West where virtually all of Clinton's support comes from. After all, if these places are 'the future' wouldn't people flock that way? And people should clearly be flooding away from the South which the 'narrative' holds is the most backward, religious, gun loving, bible beating part of America. This was certainly true for the century between 1865 and 1965 where there was a constant flow north and westward.
But we don't. In fact we see the opposite. Below is my transformation of the domestic migration statistical breakdown into ratios. Ratios less than one indicate that there are more people with those characteristics leaving a region for other parts of the US than are moving to it. A 1 indicates balance whereas a 2.0 would indicate that for every person that leaves a region, two people are moving to that region. I've colored negative ratios red. You can find the original data that I used to calculate these ratios here. The chart has some problems on mobile screens but you should be able to see it well horizontally.
Observations
- Just looking at the colors tells the tale. The South is virtually all positive migration while the other regions are a sea of red, negative net migration statistics. Overall 1.5 people move to the South for every one that moves away. The Midwest and West both have similar net out-migration losses and the Northeast is hemorrhaging people at the same rate that the South is gaining them. People really, really want out of the Northeast.
- The argument "the south is the most racist" is rather conclusively refuted by the fact that African Americans are migrating to the south at a higher rate than any other racial category and their rate of flight is highest from the 'woke' Northeast and West.
- OK, I admit it: there is one racial/ethnic category where people are migrating away from the south: "All remaining single races and all race combinations". It turns out that Eastern Rite Samoans and Radical Sioux don't like the South. And the mixed race Orthodox Jew/Sharia Arabs are leaving too.
- When it comes to the education level of immigrants, the 'narrative' can claim one partially accurate statement: More persons with graduate or professional degrees are moving to the west than are leaving it. The Northeast can take solace in the fact that it's losing these high earners at a rate lower than any other category tempered by the fact that the backward, deplorable South beats them decisively. The Midwest can take no solace from the fact that they are the big winners of the migration sweepstakes for....high school dropouts.
- The single most skewed to the South migration category is that of international immigrants who have become citizens. Typically people immigrate to gateway cities like NY or LA but over time as they become more prosperous and more familiar with the country they leave the Northeast and West. Some head to the Midwest but overwhelmingly they go South. And since this group has no long historical or familial ties to any region, their migration pattern can be said to reflect the purest expression of the relative attractiveness of the regions. It's also another massive refutation of the supposed 'xenophobia' of flyover country - perhaps it's the coastal Valhallas that have the real racial problems - driving mass flight by 'people of color'.
- Finally income level. There's a bit of good news for the west: it is holding its own among those neither poor or near poor. Although the poor and near poor flooding out of the Northeast and West give lie to the 'narrative's' claims that the coasts are more 'compassionate'. I'm afraid the Midwest's news is all bad. It is winning the battle....for the poorest Americans and losing tax base Americans decisively. The Northeast continues their "Run Yankee Run" theme while the South, well you know.
United States Domestic Migration
2010 to 2015
|
Ratio of Immigrants to Outmigrants
|
|||
Northeast
|
Midwest
|
South
|
West
|
|
TOTAL 5+ years
|
0.66
|
0.83
|
1.51
|
0.90
|
SEX
|
||||
Male
|
0.66
|
0.86
|
1.47
|
0.91
|
Female
|
0.66
|
0.81
|
1.55
|
0.90
|
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
|
||||
White
alone
|
0.67
|
0.83
|
1.50
|
0.91
|
Black
or African American alone
|
0.62
|
0.73
|
1.82
|
0.67
|
Asian
alone
|
0.65
|
0.80
|
1.51
|
1.20
|
All
remaining single races and all race combinations/1
|
0.83
|
1.29
|
0.90
|
1.00
|
White
alone, not Hispanic or Latino
|
0.68
|
0.81
|
1.49
|
0.95
|
Hispanic
or Latino/2
|
0.73
|
1.07
|
1.39
|
0.74
|
White
alone or in combination with one or more other races
|
0.68
|
0.84
|
1.48
|
0.91
|
Black
or African American alone or in combination with one or more other races
|
0.61
|
0.81
|
1.70
|
0.71
|
Asian
alone or in combination with one or more other races
|
0.65
|
0.78
|
1.42
|
1.26
|
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
|
||||
Not
a high school graduate
|
0.53
|
1.45
|
1.41
|
0.68
|
High
school graduate
|
0.73
|
0.90
|
1.44
|
0.79
|
Some
college or AA degree
|
0.57
|
0.88
|
1.66
|
0.78
|
Bachelor's
degree
|
0.63
|
0.70
|
1.70
|
1.00
|
Prof.
or graduate degree
|
0.94
|
0.60
|
1.18
|
1.39
|
Persons
age 5-24
|
0.59
|
0.93
|
1.55
|
0.85
|
NATIVITY
|
||||
Native
|
0.67
|
0.83
|
1.50
|
0.91
|
Foreign born
|
0.65
|
0.89
|
1.57
|
0.87
|
Naturalized
U.S. citizen
|
0.44
|
1.10
|
2.19
|
0.67
|
Not
a U.S. citizen
|
0.81
|
0.80
|
1.30
|
1.02
|
POVERTY
STATUS
|
||||
Below
100% of poverty
|
0.60
|
1.23
|
1.57
|
0.61
|
100%
to 149% of poverty
|
0.54
|
1.25
|
1.37
|
0.75
|
150%
of poverty and above
|
0.69
|
0.73
|
1.51
|
0.99
|
1/ Includes American Indian and Alaska Native
alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, and Two or More
Races.
|
2/ Hispanics or Latinos may be of any race.
|
"-" Represents zero or
rounds to zero.
|
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2015 Annual Social and
Economic Supplement
|
Parting Thoughts - The 'Narrative'
As we've seen every single kind of American catalogued by the Census Bureau - educated or not, white or minority, young or old, immigrant or native, rich or poor - are flooding to the most 'deplorable' region in direct contradiction of what the 'great and the good' have been telling us. How could the 'narrative' be so wrong? I think there are a couple possibilities:
- Cosmopolitan Parochialism: the media and it's academic allies live in the parts of America that lack ideological and intellectual diversity. Most of them attended the same colleges and live in neighborhoods that voted 80 or 90 percent for Clinton. They don't 'get out' much and when they do they tend to flock to places with more people like them. Occasionally in their jobs they have to go out and rub elbows with the 'Great Unwashed' but they tend to approach 'the other' anthropologically - as "Gorillas in the Mist" so to speak. In other words, they're ignorant.
- Confirmation Bias: Relative to earlier decades many of the major cities that the 'narrators' live in have undergone significant renaissances. Since they don't spend much time in southern cities like Dallas, Austin, Miami, Houston, Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville they don't realize that the progress they see at home is eclipsed by these much faster growing, more dynamic cities. They just can't conceive how the 'deplorable' rubes of their imagining could achieve such things.
2017 US Regional Population Statistics
Region
|
Population
|
Percentage
|
5
Yr Change
|
Percentage
|
Northeast
|
56,471
|
17.3%
|
909
|
7.9%
|
Midwest
|
68,179
|
20.9%
|
697
|
6.0%
|
West
|
77,411
|
23.8%
|
3,716
|
32.2%
|
South
|
123,659
|
38.0%
|
6,212
|
53.9%
|
Note on International Migration
What about international migration? Immigration certainly is a statement of preference for the US over other countries but what does it say about the specific places in the US that immigrants migrate to? In my opinion foreign immigrants move to the US with relatively few options and very little information. They tend to move to the place where others from their country or culture have settled before, usually immigrant gateways like LA, New York, Chicago, or more recently, Miami or Houston. Then as they get established, learn about the country and have more options they make domestic immigration choices. It is those choices that reflect their true preferences between US regions.
The So What? Response
"So there are more rubes piling into poor states. The Northeast coast and west coast are far more affluent and isn't being well off more important than crowds of poor people pouring in? If it were true, you'd have a point but by and large it's not. Median wages are indeed higher on the northeast and west coasts but the cost of living and levels of taxation are even higher still. So states like NY, CA, OR, VT and HI are actually 5 of the six poorest states in terms of real, take home median pay (WV is the other). And CA has the highest poverty rate in the nation. These of course are big reasons why more people leave than come to these states. They can do the math too. My analysis that demonstrates this can be found here.
Note on Regional Diversity
Obviously these regions do not reflect completely the "Trump vs Clinton Schism". The Northeast includes Trump state PA (and one district of ME), the Midwest includes Clinton states MN and IL, some of the states in the west are Trump but the great majority of the people live in Clinton states CA, NV, OR, WA, CO, NM and HI. The South is the most monolithic with only DC influenced VA going for Clinton.
There is also a temptation to treat these statistics as proxies for the biggest states in each region. But it's important to understand how those states perform relative to their regions.
- New York performs significantly worse than the rest of the NE as a whole, with the highest level of domestic outmigration of any state.
- IL performs significantly worse than the rest of the MW as a whole, currently the only US state losing population
- California performs significantly worse than the rest of the West as a whole.
- Texas and Florida perform significantly better than the rest of the South as a whole (although states like NC, SC, GA and TN are performing as well).
I chose the 2010 to 2015 timeframe because that was the latest multi year data that the Census had available that was also after the Great Recession, although the trends identified here appear to be accelerating.