Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Down with Doom and Gloom: How pessimists keep getting it wrong.

I love Matt Ridley's work.  You will too.  Money grafs:

When I was a student, in the 1970s, the world was coming to an end. The adults told me so. They said the population explosion was unstoppable, mass famine was imminent, a cancer epidemic caused by chemicals in the environment was beginning, the Sahara desert was advancing by a mile a year, the ice age was retuning, oil was running out, air pollution was choking us and nuclear winter would finish us off. There did not seem to be much point in planning for the future. I remember a fantasy I had - that I would make my way to the Hebrides, off the west coast of Scotland, and live off the land so I could survive these holocausts at least till the cancer got me.
I am not making this up. By the time I was 21 years old I realized that nobody had ever said anything optimistic to me - in a lecture, a television program or even a conversation in a bar - about the future of the planet and its people, at least not that I could recall. Doom was certain.
The next two decades were just as bad: acid rain was going to devastate forests, the loss of the ozone layer was going to fry us, gender-bending chemicals were going to decimate sperm counts, swine flu, bird flu and Ebola virus were going to wipe us all out. In 1992, the United Nations Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro opened its agenda for the twenty-first century with the words `Humanity stands at a defining moment in history. We are confronted with a perpetuation of disparities between and within nations, a worsening of poverty, hunger, ill health and illiteracy, and the continuing deterioration of the ecosystems on which we depend for our well-being.'
By then I had begun to notice that this terrible future was not all that bad. In fact every single one of the dooms I had been threatened with had proved either false or exaggerated. The population explosion was slowing down, famine had largely been conquered (except in war-torn tyrannies), India was exporting food, cancer rates were falling not rising (adjusted for age), the Sahel was greening, the climate was warming, oil was abundant, air pollution was falling fast, nuclear disarmament was proceeding apace, forests were thriving, sperm counts had not fallen. And above all, prosperity and freedom were advancing at the expense of poverty and tyranny.

2 comments:

  1. Robert Morrissey8:13 AM

    There's a big difference between Ridley's article and what's happening now. The calamities of the 70's- gas lines etc were caused by external, global forces: the sky is falling and there's nothing we can do about it. But in the meantime we had leaders who believed in the fundamental goodness of America. Ronald Reagan spoke of the Shining City on the Hill. Even Clinton, in his 1993 Inaugural address said, “There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America.” Today is different. America is being attacked from within. Congress is dimantling the greatest healthcare system in Earth, passing a 2,500 page bill which applies to everyone but themselves and the lawyers. They passed a 2,000 page finance reform bill that does not even mention Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They have nationalized the student loan program. I could go on. In the meantime, we have a president who's bowed before Muslim kings. He's criticized America on foreign soil and insulted some of our closest allies. One of the first things this president did when he took office was return the bust of Churchill given to the American people by Tony Blair after 911. He did not quietly remove it and put it in a closet. He actually gave it back to them. No, these are not cheerful times and the threats to this country are real.

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  2. Anonymous8:29 AM

    From Robert Morrissey:

    There's a big difference between Ridley's article and what's happening now. The calamities of the 70's- gas lines etc were caused by external, global forces: the sky is falling and there's nothing we can do about it. But in the meantime we had leaders who believed in the fundamental goodness of America. Ronald Reagan spoke of the Shining City on the Hill. Even Clinton, in his 1993 Inaugural address said, “There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America.” Today is different. America is being attacked from within. Congress is dimantling the greatest healthcare system in Earth, passing a 2500 page bill which applies to everyone but themselves and the lawyers. They passed a 2000 page finance reform bill that does not even mention Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They have nationalized the student loan program. I could go on. In the meantime, we have a president who's bowed before Muslim kings. He's criticized America on foreign soil and insulted some of our closest allies. One of the first things this president did when he took office was return the bust of Churchill given to the American people by Tony Blair after 911. He did not quietly remove it and put it in a closet. He actually gave it back to them. No, these are not cheerful times and the threats to this country are real.

    ReplyDelete