Monday, October 20, 2014

It turns out that Math is Hard for Harvard lawyers

We have a massive 'sex assault' witch hunt going on on our college campuses that has been driven by the Obama administration and a 'game changing' report published on Campus Sexual Assault last January.  In it the Ivy League Geniuses make two fundamental statements.  First that one in five women are sexually assaulted on a college campus.  The second is that only twelve percent of all sexual assaults on college campuses are reported.  The problem is that both of these numbers can't be true.  Math is HARD.  Particularly for Ivy League lawyers.  Particularly for the one of the "smartest lawyers at Harvard ever" because Our President has been repeating this obviously statistically inept but electorally useful claim over and over. And our Ivy League press has been lapping it up.  Particularly Ezra "Vox me baby, Vox me baby all night long" Klein who runs Vox which is supposedly dedicated to 'explanatory' journalism:  explaining 'what it all means'.  But of course if you can't do arithmetic it's pretty freaking hard to explain anything. From Carpe Diem:

In a January 2014 report titled “Rape and Sexual Assault: A Renewed Call to Action” (which led to the creation of the “Task Force to Protect Students From Sexual Assault” headed by Biden), the White House made the following two statements:
White House Statement 1. Sexual assault is a particular problem on college campuses:1 in 5 women has been sexually assaulted while in college.
White House Statement 2. Reporting rates for campus sexual assault are also very low: on average only 12% of student victims report the assault to law enforcement.
There’s a huge, irreconcilable statistical problem here. Using actual reported crime statistics on sexual offenses at almost any US college and applying the White House claim that only 12% of campus sexual assaults actually get reported, we have to conclude that nowhere near 1 in 5 women are sexually assaulted while in college. Alternatively, if the “1 in 5 women” claim is true, the percentage of sexual assaults that don’t get reported to the campus police would have to be much lower than 12%. In other words, the claims that the White House uses don’t work together and they therefore both can’t be simultaneously correct.

Assuming that only 12% of campus sexual assaults at OSU are reported.
osuAssuming that 1 in 5 women at OSU are assaulted over 4 years.
osu1
Maroons, we are governed by Maroons.  Well actually they're Crimsons but I liked Bugs Bunny's formulation better. Go U of C!

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