Sunday, January 09, 2011

Correlation is not causation, correlation is not causation, correlation is not causation....

Everyone should be forced to repeat that 10 times a day.  Today's latest:  "The more beer you drink the more you exercise".  Add this to "the more you drink the longer you live" and "the higher your IQ, the more you drink".  The best explanation for these odd (but very scientifically respectable) findings is what I call the "Michael Jordan Effect".

Imagine you and Michael Jordan are playing basketball.  Mike is beating the tar out of you (okay, Hakeem Olajuwon, not you, so butt out).  Mike pops a brewski and downs it.  Still stomping you.  He pops another, and slams it, still beating you but not so much.  In fact Mike would have to down a whole six pack and a couple of boilermakers before I could win a game of Horse with him.  Why is this so?  Michael Jordan's competency in basketball is far greater than virtually anyone else so he can still excel despite being seriously impaired.  This does not mean that MJ should drink and play - his performance degrades like everyone else's, just from a higher level.

The same holds true more broadly.  People who have higher IQs can drink more and still function at an acceptable level in society.  People with low intelligence struggle to keep up sober, they can't afford the impairment that alcohol consumption brings.  It also happens (unsurprisingly) that more intelligent people live longer and exercise more.  So as much as I would like to believe that beer is brain food, it isn't.  Sigh.

Once again, everyone now:  "correlation is not causation, correlation is not causation, correlation......"

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