Monday, January 31, 2011

The disconnect between power and knowledge

Most economists hold that technological changes are the underlying driver of economic and social change - that technology is the 'endogenous' variable that culture and politics react to.  Tyler Cowen's book,  The Great Stagnation essentially takes this view.  But the question is what is the broad technological process that is doing the 'driving' so to speak?  Arnold Kling hits the nail on the head here (hat tip Reihan Salam of NRO):


My view of the arc of technology is that from 1800-1950, the technologies promoted mass society. Mass workers, mass consumers, mass media, large-scale factories, etc. However, since then, the most important technologies have favored decentralization. The computer and the Internet enhance the power of individuals and make it more difficult for large corporate congomerates and centralized governments to work effectively. Economies of scale still exist, but do niche markets. Most important, the diseconomies of scope are now severe.
Cowen attributes political dissatisfaction and turmoil to the phenomenon that our expectations have gotten out of hand relative to what the economy can provide. I attribute political dissatisfaction and turmoil to what I call the discrepancy between knowledge and power. Power became more concentrated in the era of mass technologies and it has continued to become more concentrated.. However, knowledge has become more dispersed. This dispersal of knowledge eventually will lead to the dispersal of power, but the incumbent political powers will resist that dispersal.
Cowen wants to explain the financial crisis as a result of people not perceiving the slowdown in economic growth. They borrowed too much against future income that could not be realized. I want to explain the crisis in part as a result of the knowledge-power discrepancy. The largest banks and their regulators had too much power and too little knowledge.

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