Wednesday, June 18, 2014

So how bad is it that BHO has worse approval ratings than Bush at the same time?

On one level you'd have to say "big deal" to the NBC/WSJ Poll because he's not running for reelection. But his party is and boy is he a drag. Particularly when you remember that BHO's approval is artificially inflated by virtually unanimous black support irregardless of performance. Call it the Coleman Young paradox after the mayor of Detroit who was reelected time after time despite his horrible performance.

I don't have access to the cross tabs but if you assume that black approval for Obama is 85% for and 15% against and they are 12% of the sample, then the non-inflated approval rating is actually 35% positive and 58% negative versus 41% and 53% for the entire sample.  Pretty rough sledding no matter how you stack it up.

This was always the risk:  Dems put forward an untested candidate who could win easily due to the 'historic' nature of his candidacy and his ability to pump up minority turnout.  But he's turned into something of a failure as President precisely because he had not developed those political and executive skills that experience in other leadership roles would have given him.  It's impossible to not think of this as another example where a bright, talented minority fails because he's pushed too far too fast to develop the capabilities needed for the job he ended up with.

But now we'll never know what kind of man or President Barack Obama would have been if he was just on the normal 'fast track' rather than the affirmative 'superfast track'.



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