Monday, February 07, 2011

Here's an illustration of a Capital strike

Doc in a box or retail medical clinics in other facilities are a market driven response to the 'access crisis' in health care.  When the law was stable, their growth was rapid.  As soon as it became evident that "Hope and Change" were going to gain dominant power and that they were going to radically 'reform' health care finance, investment stopped.  Not slowed.  Stopped.  Period.  Because no one in their right mind would invest good money into a sector when they didn't know the rules.  How do you decide what to put into your spreadsheet?

And that's why the projections of growth are so suspect:  what numbers do you put in your spreadsheet?  One of the many problems with the Obami's 'reform' is that it has introduced massive, multi-year policy instability into the largest sector of the US economy, causing wild swings in sentiment as elections and legal cases occur.  This chaos is likely to last for a minimum of 3 more years with horrible effects on the types of investments that could yield real cost and quality improvements.

We need to figure out how to unleash markets and make them work better, not freeze them for half a decade or more.  But for that we need to have people in power who believe in and understand how markets work.

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