Trust a KOSsack analysis and you'll end up flat on your ossack.

I ran across this 'analysis' of the 'remarkable trend' from R to D in voting behavior and learned how it portends doom for Republicans and Velvet for the port-siders. It resulted in impassioned, indeed enraged calls to end the horrors of gerrymandering and for all I know of Republican partyism. Unfortunately it turns out to be a pile of steaming Dingo doo - a fraud filled analysis that has been done so many times that even freshmen, freshmen can smell it's stench. What the wee little Kossack did was compare a big R winning year (1988) to BHO's winning totals in 2012 and break it down to the county level and claiming that this 'proves' that the nation is swinging resolutely to the Dems. It really looks that way when you run the numbers because theres a D+11.58 point national winning margin swing which is huge. Until you remember:

EVERY WINNING R YEAR WHEN COMPARED TO BHO 2012 IS GOING TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE D SWING. EVERY WINNING R YEAR WHEN COMPARED TO A LOSING D YEAR WILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE R SWING.

The adult way to do this analysis is to compare winning D years to winning D years and see how things are changing. For example 1992 vs. 2012: R +1.70 hmmm. 1996 vs 2012 (perhaps the most reasonable comparison - a 2nd term D win to 2nd term D win): R +4.65 Oh crap hmm. Or how about comparing BHO 1 vs BHO 2 (R +3.41) against GWB 1 vs GWB 2 (R +1.45)crap, crap, crap, hmm, hmm, hmm.

Which is why most observers think that BHO and the Dems are going to get crushed this year. Which would be inexplicable if you believed the Kossack's Kossified analysis. As I always say: believe a Kossack and you'll get Kossed on your Ossack.

David Jarman is the Kossack that excreted this analysis.  I think I need to get a Jar of that, man, because it's got to be the most primo left wing bullshit on the market today.  It's got purty pitchers though!