To argue that the US can decouple from Europe's problems doesn't hold water with me. We are clearly in recovery, but we are going to need all the help we can get. And a Europe falling into what could be a serious recession is not a Europe that buys our goods. And with the euro on the way to parity (along with the pound) we will have to compete with their exporters. The latter half of this year, I think the US slows down. Then the 2011 tax hikes kick in.
I still think there is at least a 50-50 chance of renewed recession, and with it a serious bear market and rising unemployment. I hope I am wrong but, as I have been writing for some time, you should see this as a trader's market and, with a few exceptions, be wary of being long only.
Hattip John Macauley
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