The Fallacy of Fairness

A central tenet of 'left thought' and one held (albeit in inchoate form) by a majority of Americans is the believe in "Fairness". Thomas Sowell, perhaps our greatest living political philosopher (and eons ahead of John Rawls but of course, he's dead) explains the sheer illogic of the "Fairness" meme.

It's a multi-part series so read the whole thing.

Obama The Musical

Andrew Klavan trips the light fantastic about a German musical idolizing Barack Obama. Hmm Germans idolizing charismatic politicians. Makes sense to me.

See you on broadway.

The Essential Difference Between the US and Europe

As usual, Mark Steyn has the mot juste:

He's right. I've been saying for months that the difference between America and Europe is that, when the global economy nosedived, everywhere from Iceland to Bulgaria mobs took to the streets and besieged Parliament, demanding to know why government didn't do more for them. This is the only country in the developed world where a mass movement took to the streets to say we can do just fine if you control-freak statists would just stay the hell out of our lives, and our pockets. You can shove your non-stimulating stimulus, your jobless jobs bill, and your multitrillion-dollar porkathons. This isn't karaoke. These guys are singing "I'll do it my way" for real.

BHO Doesn't do incrementalism

One of the President's problems is that he believes in large 'comprehensive' visions implemented top down from Washington. It doesn't seem that this ex-community organizer believes in incrementalism. Jeff Anderson gets to the point in the Weekly Standard regarding "comprehensive" healthcare reform:

This bizarre combination of claims is revelatory of the president’s outlook on politics. “Incremental gains” is a phrase foreign to his vocabulary, as is the notion of having Washington solve problems by getting out of the way and unleashing the initiative of individuals or communities. Rather, problems must be solved all at once, comprehensively, nationwide, from the top, by the federal government. This approach is largely divorced from practical considerations or, as Sebelius notes, from compromise. It is the approach of the theoretician, not the practitioner; of the academic, not the statesman; of one who prefers to decree or to gain acquiescence, rather than to negotiate or to persuade.

The Party and the Proles

Government workers are waxing fat and we are further and further under their thumb. Carpe Diem has the story. It is so ugly as to be comical.

We have always been at war with Eastasia.

$400 MM and all we got was this lousy Obama T shirt

Unions blew $400 million (some of it borrowed) electing Democrats in the last election cycle. If they don't get anything out of it except the T Shirt, they're going to look like the biggest Chumps since.....well since the policy Liberals standing next to them in the ill fitting Obama T Shirt blew $500 million.

Obamawhining on the budget

Megan McCardle (no right winger or even Republican) has his number. You know, I used to have to quote right wingers to get criticism of the one. Now it seems anyone who is paying attention and not directly on his payroll is sick of him. This has to be an all time record from hero to zero. W. O. W. Ms. McCardle's Money Graf:

Listening to his defenders reminds me of those people who sit around whining about how their Dad was really distant and critical. … I mean, fine, you apparently had a rotten childhood, but Dad can’t get come and get you off the couch and find you a girlfriend and a better job. Girls and employers get really creeped out if they try.

Whatever George W. Bush did or did not do, he’s no longer in office, and doesn’t have the power to do a damn thing about the budget. Obama is the one who is president with the really humongous deficits. Deficits of the size Bush ran are basically sustainable indefinitely; deficits of the size that Obama is apparently planning to run, aren’t. If he doesn’t change those plans, he will be the one who led the government into fiscal crisis, even if changing them would be [sob!] politically difficult.

Niall Ferguson on our Insane Budget's Greek Profile

Niall Ferguson, never the most cheerful of analysts is positively funereal about our nation's prospects under current leadership. Money graf:

Even according to the White House’s new budget projections, the gross federal debt in public hands will exceed 100 per cent of GDP in just two years’ time. This year, like last year, the federal deficit will be around 10 per cent of GDP. The long-run projections of the Congressional Budget Office suggest that the US will never again run a balanced budget. That’s right, never.

Nooooooooooooo!

David Broder says of Sarah Palin: "the lady is good". More here:

I gave her high marks for her vice presidential acceptance speech in St. Paul. But then, and always throughout that campaign, she was laboring to do more than establish her own place. She was selling a ticket headed by John McCain against formidable Democratic opposition and burdened by the legacy of the Bush administration.

Blessed with an enthusiastic audience of conservative activists, Palin used the Tea Party gathering and coverage on the cable networks to display the full repertoire she possesses, touching on national security, economics, fiscal and social policy, and every other area where she could draw a contrast with Barack Obama and point up what Republicans see as vulnerabilities in Washington.

No, this can't be true. Repeat after me: "She's a chilbilly boob, she's a chillbilly boob, she's a chillbilly boob". Poor Chrissy Matthews is going to have a rupture up his leg if this continues.

The Left Made Palin - And Sara is going to make them eat every bite

Ralph Reed explains:

What ultimately drives the media crazy is they know instinctively they are co-conspirators in her rise. From the Katie Couric interview to the over-the-top attacks by the likes of Shrum, by overplaying their hand they made Palin a bigger force than they ever intended. Had they simply been fair to Palin when she ran for vice president and treated her with decency, she would not be viewed now by so many grassroots conservatives as a victim of irrational elitist hatred. As much as John McCain in selecting her as his running mate in 2008, the MSM made her a force, and she is proving she can use that platform very effectively indeed.

Obama campaign team lousy at governing

It turns out that BHO's winning campaign team is a disaster at governing. Any sentient being could tell that bomb thrower Rahm Emmanuel, who famously sent a fish wrapped in paper to a reporter he disliked, would be a catastrophe in the high process, low profile chief of staff role. Anyone except someone like BHO who had absolutely no experience managing anything or anyone of substance. As Edward Luce at the FT explains:

Pundits, Democratic lawmakers and opinion pollsters offer a smorgasbord of reasons – from Mr Obama’s decision to devote his first year in office to healthcare reform, to the president’s inability to convince voters he can “feel their [economic] pain”, to the apparent ungovernability of today’s Washington. All may indeed have contributed to the quandary in which Mr Obama finds himself. But those around him have a more specific diagnosis – and one that is striking in its uniformity. The Obama White House is geared for campaigning rather than governing, they say.

I particularly love the MSM condescendion on Ronald Reagan in the same piece.

The Hollywood touch

Political scientists credit Ronald Reagan with having managed the best transition from campaigning to governing when he moved to the White House in 1981. While lacking in intellectual skills, Reagan was often a shrewd judge of character. Following his victory in a bitter primary campaign with George H.W. Bush in 1980, Reagan promptly hired his defeated opponent’s campaign manager, James Baker, to be his first chief of staff. Understated but authoritative, Mr Baker is considered one of the most effective performers in that role, to which he brought a good managerial background and an ability to play honest broker.

So let me get this straight: the intellectual nullity, RR managed the most successful transition from campaigning to governing because he was a shrewd judge of character (perhaps from his 8 years in Sacramento?) while the Intellectual "giant" BHO is a flailing failure because he doesn't understand character, didn't know who to hire, took the wrong advice and generally behaved like a sophomoric boob. Hmm - A great endorsement for "intellectuals".

Washington DC Survival Information from the Weather Service

Damn Global Warming.

IF YOU GET STRANDED IN YOUR VEHICLE...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO WALK FOR ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN QUICKLY BECOME DISORIENTED IN WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND COLD. THIS STORM WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WAIT IN YOUR CAR FOR EMERGENCY HELP TO ARRIVE. PERIODICALLY RUN YOUR ENGINE FOR ABOUT 10 MINUTES EACH HOUR FOR HEAT. ENSURE YOUR EXHAUST PIPE IS CLEARED OF SNOW AND ICE. CRACK YOUR WINDOWS TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. TIE A COLORED CLOTH TO YOUR CARS ANTENNA TO BE VISIBLE TO RESCUERS. FROM TIME-TO-TIME...MOVE YOUR ARMS...LEGS...FINGERS...AND TOES TO KEEP BLOOD CIRCULATING.

My friend Ben was right

My friend Ben is a Democrat (gasp!) although a reasonable, moderate one. He has often argued that divided government is good government at our Federal level. While I'm too much of an ideologue to agree with him completely, I must agree that this has been the case over the last year. Michael Barone asks and answers the question about why the Democrats after having more political power than at any time since 1964 find themselves in a worse predicament than he has seen anytime in his long career.

“The same people who directed the campaign that defeated Hillary Clinton and routed John McCain, a campaign that raised far more money and attracted far more volunteers than any before it, have within a year come up with a legislative program that is crashing in ruins and that, to judge from recent polls, has left the Democratic party weaker than I have seen it in almost 50 years of closely following politics.”

Of course one could point out that 1964 was followed by 1965 and Tonkin Bay.

The Spinning isn't working anymore

BHO has famously exploited the reluctance of the media to criticize him to spin his partisan version of events. But now that the President is pushing a bipartisan line, even CBS. C. B. S. - The Cronkite Broadcasting Service is pointing out the utter vacuous insincerity of his supposed bipartisanship.

CBS reports:

Mr. Obama said he “won’t hesitate to embrace a good idea from my friends in the minority party.” But he wants his way. He wants his energy policy enacted along with his jobs bill, his financial regulatory reform and his health care plan.And if the opposition continues to block his objectives, he said he “won’t hesitate to condemn what I consider to be obstinacy that’s rooted not in substantive disagreement but in political expedience.”

When a sitting president calls for bipartisanship by the opposition – he really means surrender. And if they block his proposals, its “obstinacy” and not political views they hold as strongly as he holds his.

Even the true believers are getting tired of his schtick, one year in. Without substantive change at the top, it's going to be a long four years for the Obami. But where does change come from with a callow and untested leader? Only catastrophe.

And we're not at catastrophic yet.

Barack Obama takes Cynicism to a new level

Fred Hiatt asks in the Wapo why the Obama administration is killing off DC's voucher program just as research demonstrates it is working. Perhaps his union pals have something to do with this?

The Obama administration said it was going to respect science and respond to evidence -- a contrast, many Democrats said, to the previous regime. So why is President Obama killing off the program that offers the best chance to find out if school vouchers work?

Congress has been paying for the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program, which helps more than a thousand District children attend private schools. It gives a chance of a future to children who otherwise would be condemned to attend failing schools. How can that be bad?

Jim Taranto with a timeless truth

"The Republican Party is not without its flaws, but the Democratic Party would be much worse without it--and vice versa."

Too True, Too True. As an aside, here is Tom Delay at his retirement defending partisanship:

"You show me a nation without partisanship, and I'll show you a tyranny. For all its faults, it is partisanship, based on core principles, that clarifies our debates, that prevents one party from straying too far from the mainstream, and that constantly refreshes our politics with new ideas and new leaders. Indeed, whatever role partisanship may have played in my own retirement today or in the unfriendliness heaped upon other leaders in other times, Republican or Democrat, however unjust, all we can say is that partisanship is the worst means of settling fundamental political differences — except for all the others."

Two Cheers for partisanship!

What? Tom Friedman wrong?

Stay rates for Chinese earning Phds at US universities are around 90%. Kind of contradicts Tom Friedman's Hu Jintao pinkie ring kissing routine.

It's tragic how such a creative, thoughtful journalist has morphed into a cheerleader for the world's biggest thugocracy.

Weakling is as weakling does

The fruits of Obama's new 'multilateralist', 'cowboy free' foreign policy? He can't even get his phone calls returned. No wonder he's taking his ball and going home. He can get this type of humiliation from Reid and Pelosi, he doesn't have to travel half way round the world. Matt Welch of Reason explains:

“America is losing the free world,” said a January headline in the Financial Times. While that statement is exaggerated, the sentiment behind it has been gaining traction around the globe, especially in the wake of the climate conference debacle in Copenhagen. It’s not just that the less confrontational American president has been unable to deliver results. He can’t even get his phone calls returned.

“On the last day of the [Copenhagen] talks, the Americans tried to fix up one-to-one meetings between Mr Obama and the leaders of South Africa, Brazil and India—but failed each time,” Gideon Rachman wrote in the Financial Times piece. “The Indians even said that their prime minister, Manmohan Singh, had already left for the airport. So Mr Obama must have felt something of a chump when he arrived for a last-minute meeting with Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, only to find him already deep in negotiations with the leaders of none other than Brazil, South Africa and India.”

David Gergen, call your service!

Why don't the geezers do what's right.

David Brooks asks why the Geezers don't do what is right and organize a reduction in the ludicrous transfer of wealth from the powerless (their children and grandchildren) to the powerful (them). You know it would be nice if our parents were to sit down and tell us that they're sorry for burdening our generation with their greed - imagine that, the richest electorates in the history of the world deciding that they didn't have enough so they nick their kids. You get a lot of oldsters talking about the problem but when it comes time to take the check, by golly, they belly up to the trough with their bibs on. Yum!

Nope, not gonna happen - grannies are going to continue to give us hugs, cookies and bankruptcy. My goodness gracious! How DID you get that red ink all over you?

I've asked my pastor why this isn't a moral issue - after all one generation is stealing the sweat off the brow of another - involuntary servitude really. I don't get anything except tepid clichés and silence. But of course our Church was a slave church and never said boo about the slavers in their midst pre 1865. And they're thinking: "well we survived that, so we'll survive this". But they forget: there were no slave members in 1865. When this comes down half the church will be slaves to the other half. It will tear congregations to shreds.

And the Pastors who have stuck with the old looters because they had all the money and power will be crucified on their crosses of gold. Hey! I'm channeling William Jennings Bryan! Talk about an old looter!

And now for petulance and withdrawal

Things haven't gone right for him on the world stage? So he's going to take his ball and go home. Jackson Diehl has the con at WAPO.

One of the problems with having no experience is you don't know how to cope with rejection and failure. Mr. Obama is demonstrating precisely how not to behave.

Will someone get some adults to help our callow law lecturer? Before he embarrasses us all?

And a self righteous scold.

As Jennifer Rubin says: "All blind dates don't work out".

He's a Whiner

Jennifer Rubin on the radical difference between W. and The One.

Corpseman Walking

Unhappy with Jim Geraghty's phrase of the decade: "Unsustainable is the new normal", President Obama has coined his own: America: Corpseman Walking

Hand-Gate

The Left is in a tizzy over the fact that SP writes notes on her hand. So to mock their bizarre obsession, she wrote "Hi Mom!" on her hand for all the hysterics to see.

Positively Reaganesqe.

Sarah Palin and her Redneck Teleprompter vs. The One

Sara Palin's Teleprompter:

What happens when BHO's Ivy League Teleprompter breaks down:

Sometimes it takes a democrat...

...to explain why markets and market leaders are important. David Goldhill of the Atlantic explaining to NPR listeners (who need a lot of education) why Wal Marts are important to everyone.

You benefit from Wal-Mart whether you shop there or not.

In most goods and services there are very few active consumers. What happens is, everybody selling a good is affected by Wal-Mart. You benefit from that wherever you are. So many of those who oppose consumer-driven health care use the perfect as the enemy of the good. You’re not going to shop for health care if you’re hit by a bus. That’s not the point. The point is you’re served in a health-care system that’s been tightened up, both from a cost and quality point of view, by the fact that some consumers, for many procedures, are shopping around, and not just on price.

The reality is that if I’d known what I know about this hospital, it’s not where I would have put my father. It’s not that I would have been able to discover that when he got sick. It’s that in the same way that I can find out about almost any business that I choose, their quality record and their pricing, I want the same thing for health care. It doesn’t mean that if you’re hit by a bus you pick up the phone and call ten hospitals.

And I think this misunderstanding of how consumer economies actually work is crucial to a mistake that’s made a lot, which is that it’s much better to have some big, financially interested institution make a decision on your behalf because you’re not smart enough. You don’t have to be smart enough to get the best deal on most things in our economy, because some people care enough to create the Wal-Marts of the world. And that’s all that happens, is that once there’s a Wal-Mart, you’d better be competitive with Wal-Mart, or you’re out of business.

Doing Science will never be the same

Matt Ridley documents the way that lone bloggers have upended the entire climate science industry. Science has historically been reverentially quoted by a gullible press. Now with sunshine flooding the ugly basement bucket shops of the green scientists, the free ride is over.

And not a moment too soon.

A revolution is coming.

The Green Police: Now Environmentalism is the Joke - to Sell Cars

I never realized Germans could be so funny.

Jay Cost on Obama's Mistakes

Exceptionally perceptive article. After failing to ram its unpopular agenda through, the left is crying that the country is ungovernable. Mr. Cost says nonsese: This is a center or center right country that moves incrementally. Mr. Obama has tried to make massive changes from the left. Predictable result: failure.

One more example of Mr. Obama's inexperience and narcicissm leading to failure. I suspect we'll see quite a bit more incompetent flailing before he's done.

And in the end it will be the 'Racist' country's fault that he failed. All the Pharisees, moneychangers, sinners and Romans will have brought The One low and politically crucified Him on the (Capitol) hill of skulls.

But he'll rise again. Won't he? Well? Won't he?

Palin, Obama Treated as Equals

The press is starting to recognize Sarah Palin as the leader of the Opposition. When the press treats the losing candidate for Veep as the conceptual equal of the President, it's the President that has a problem.

How do you say EEK! in progressivese?

There's Hope for Change.

Sarah Palin: From Chillbilly Boob to Evil Genius in one year flat.

The MSM mocked her mercilessly. Now look at what the NYT has to say about the Wahoo from Wasila:

Ms. Palin represents a new breed of unelected public figures operating in an environment in which politics, news media and celebrity are fused as never before. Her growing cast of advisers and support system could be working in the service of any number of goals: a presidential run, a de facto role as the leader of the Tea Party movement, a lucrative career as a roving media entity — or all of the above. Whether she ever runs for anything else, Ms. Palin has already achieved a status that has become an end in itself: access to an electronic bully pulpit, a staff to guide her, an enormous income and none of the bother or accountability of having to govern or campaign for office....

... Ms. Palin is quietly assembling the infrastructure of an expanding political operation....

Ms. Palin has also enlisted a small team of policy counselors to guide her through the substantive areas in which many deemed her to be lacking in 2008....

People with knowledge of the daily briefings say they are conducted by phone or e-mail. They typically include information on the day’s news, material that could be relevant to an upcoming speech, or guidance about a candidate Ms. Palin might endorse....

[T]he question of Ms. Palin’s ambitions and abilities remain as much a mystery now as when she first stormed the national consciousness 18 months ago. They warn against any notion that she has any grand plan beside keeping faith that God would help her recognize “the next open door” (a favorite Palin refrain)

For whatever reason the leftist media elite has a congenital inability to recognize intelligence and capability unless it is spouting cliches that they approve of until it's too late to do anything about it. For further information on this fascination phenomenon see Obama, Barack; Presidential Election of;.

There's hope for change.

Angela Braly, CEO Wellpoint on Obamacare

Angela, a close personal friend, was interviewed by the WSJ - in her mild mannered way she pointed out the lunacy of what the Democrats have proposed. The greatest inanity is the creation of guaranteed issue - one can get insurance in the ambulance on the way to the Hospital. New York has it, Indiana doesn't and these are the results:

Depending on the plan, WellPoint's monthly premium for a 20-year-old in Indianapolis, where the company is based, ranges from $53 to $202. But the same young adult looking for similar coverage in Albany would face costs anywhere between $832 and $1,047. Obviously health costs vary across the country, Mrs. Braly says, but these disparities are almost entirely due to New York's regulatory mandates. In a state with 19 million people, 88 New Yorkers between the ages of 18 and 24—88!—have bought WellPoint's best-selling individual insurance product because insurance laws make it perfectly rational not to acquire costly coverage until people need it.

Dean Vermer needs to step in and have a sit down with our callow leader: Ignorant and narcicisstic is no way to go through life, son.

GWB - Imbecile II

No Child Left Behind

Mr. Bush famously partnered with Ted Kennedy (which really should be an imbecelity by itself, as Ms. Kopechne would tell you if she were alive and unpartnered) to pass "Landmark" education reform legislation called "No Child Left Behind".

The essential component was a requirement that that all children score above average on standardized tests as condition for receiving Federal funds. Expert after expert has pointed out that Children's intelligence observes a normal distribution or 'Bell' curve and that the goals laid out in the legislation were simply beyond the cognitive capabilities of a significant minority. In other words, the expectation was biologically impossible.

But the Hammer of Helmand and Scourge of Samarra was having none of this impossible stuff, why he had heard of a district up in Minnesota - Lake Woebegon - where "All the kids are above average" and if a bunch of Yankee snow pounders can do it, so can the boys in Waco.

Sigh.

Unsustainable is the New Normal

NRO's Jim Geraghty coins the phrase for the decade.

George W. Bush, Imbecile I

I am feeling guilty about berating President Obama so often, although in such a target rich environment who can blame me? And why should I stop when I'm having so much fun? For example there is.....wait, stop!

Must. Pull. Self. Away.

Whew! That was close. As therapy I've started a new series focused on the various imbecelities of one George W. Bush late avatar of compassionate conservative cliches. To wit: His Compassionness' ban on incandescent light bulbs. See here:

On the Instability of Monopolies

Matt Welch has an interesting piece on the inherent instability of monopolies using Microsoft as an example. It seems that the existence of monopolies often calls into play the forces for their destruction: consumer anger, international envy, and corporate sclerosis from a too easy competitive life leach the power and talent away until the world beater turns into a tired, old, vulnerable company.

There's one monopoly where Welch's thesis breaks down: The Federal Government: it uses the existence of other monopolies and the "need" to regulate them to justify confiscating more (permanent) power and wealth from the rest of society.

Personally, I'd rather be ripped off by Sergei Brin or Bill Gates than Barack Obama any day. At least I get something for my money.

Our New Faux Nobility

From an interview with Clarence Thomas about who he selects to be his Law Clerks:

“And for law clerks he chooses ‘the kids I like,’ with “a preference for non-Ivy League law clerks, ‘because “I’m not part of this new or faux nobility.’

How is it that the institutions with the most "progressive" leadership and "progressive" politics have turned into the nation's greatest bastions of elitism and snobbery? Charles Murray and Richard Hernnstein's Liberal heresy: The Bell Curve described this transformation into a conveyor belt of privilege to a T. Which is why they were pronounced anathema on college campuses everywhere.

Of course the Obami are part of this new elite and they aren't impressing us lumpen proles.

There is Hope for Change.

He's really going to do it

I've observed that the Obama strategy of trying to use an anomalous election to ram through radical legislation was not a strategy likely to endear him to middle American voters who are concerned about their jobs. But I never, ever dreamed that given repeated evidence to the contrary (NJ, VA, MA) the One would stick to the plan even if it leads to his party's political destruction. Like me, Charles Lane of the Wapo is gobsmacked, utterly stunned by the President's unswerving commitment to his agenda regardless of reality.

You know, the media portrayed Obama as some sort of demi-Christ come to save us during the election. Perhaps Mr. Obama actually believes his press and sees the current process as just one more step on his long personal road to Golgotha.

W. O. W.

Medicare, Bastiat and the Balm of Geezerad

For whatever reason the people that drive 'reform' in our government demonstrate an almost complete inability to foresee or even imagine second, third and fourth order effects from the policies that they institute. Yet it is often these "things unseen" as Bastiat would put it, that are the farthest reaching and most destructive aspects of 'progressive' social and economic manipulation.

The Great Depression was particularly filled with these ironic progressive innovations. For example, take income tax 'reform'. In the twenties, the Federal income tax was 15% of high earners income. When the Great Depression hit, Hoover, a Giant among fools (or is that Giant fool?) raised it to 60%. Not to be outdone in perversity by that Republican piker, FDR raised it to 70% and then even 79% for a time. Aside from pure vindictiveness it is hard to see what the left wing lawyers sought to accomplish by this. Indeed the 'first order' effect of this policy was to contribute mightily to the 'capital strike' which defined the Depression, ensuring that 20% unemployment persisted right up to WW2.

But there was a second order effect. With high marginal rates, the 'progressive's' political fixers had 'product' to sell. Any industry or business who could get a deduction or exemption written into the code for what they were selling could make a fortune. And they would share that largess with the politicians and parties who made it happen. One of these industries was health insurance. They persuaded FDR to make health insurance premiums paid for by companies on behalf of employees exempt from income tax. And company provided health insurance exploded. It's not hard to see why: pay me $1 I pay most of it to the government. Pay my health insurance and I keep all the benefits.

The second order effect of the employee benefits exemption led to a third order effect. Historically 'health insurance' had been sold only to individuals and only as a catastrophic policy. The great majority of health care expenses were paid out of pocket by consumers or financed by providers. But now, given confiscatory rates, it made tax sense to provide employees not with insurance but with 'prepaid health care' to sweep as much of the costs into the tax exempt bucket. So almost all healthcare expenses became "third party" expenses.

And this led to a fourth order effect: a radical change in consumer behavior. 

Bear with me for a minute while I provide an analogy of what happened using a commodity that we are all familiar with: What if your company gave you 'first dollar' Food and Drink insurance? In other words, your food and beverages are part of your compensation. When you're hungry, you whip out your insurance card and for free or a de minimis charge at the point of delivery, you can order whatever you want. How would your behavior change? Three ways:

First, you would consume more food. After all, taking a second loaf of bread to make sure we don't run out doesn't cost anything. Some of it will be wasted, yes, but that would be no skin off of your nose. Can't decide between the triple chocolate tort and the blueberry ice cream? Order 'em both.

Second, you'd 'class up', replacing Two Buck Chuck with Ten Buck Charles. I mean why starve yourself of the finer things in life? Particularly when someone else is picking up the tab?

Third, you would no longer waste time on all that 'good consumer' crap: price comparing, looking for 'deals', stocking up, clipping coupons, going to mega discount chains, bagging your own groceries. Essentially we would become a nation of Bluto Blutarskys of Animal House fame: "Want a beer? Don't cost nuthin"

And the food retailing industry would quickly get the message. You want a lot? We'll give you bigger package sizes. You want class? We'll cut the discount stuff and line the shelves with 'super premium' product. You don't care about price? We'll raise it through the roof. They'll also pour money into facilities and amenities that can be tied to food. WalMart will cover its floors in terrazo and will win an award for the best complimentary valet parking service in food retailing. And the per capita cost of food will explode. So long as the company is willing to pay more each year, that is.

Get the picture?

This is what happened to healthcare starting in the '30s and accelerating in the 40s and 50s. In many respects it was a golden age because you had great health coverage. If you had employer provided health insurance, that is. For the poor and the elderly it was a dark time. Up until then, healthcare had largely been an out of pocket consumer purchase. As a result it wasn't that expensive to go to the doctor or pay for a whole range of procedures. And all the panoply of price shopping and competition was in full flower. But with the Blutarskys driving the healthcare Lincoln (the fourth order effect) and the healthcare industry rapidly restructuring itself to a third party payor model (the third order effect), they found themselves increasingly priced out of the market. The elderly in particular were hit. Because they use the most and the most expensive healthcare, they suffered first. They were the canary in the coal mine and by 1965 they were tweeting to their representatives at top volume.

So the best and brightest were pulled together. Flights from Boston were packed with brainy looking coves, their briefcases bulging with scholarly papers and 'therapeutic' visions. They all got together and said: you know what? Our policy of vindictively high tax rates coupled with an exemption for health insurance has provoked a roaring inflation that is sinking the elderly. Lets reverse course and relink healthcare price and value - deemphasizing third party payment. Lets put the people back in the driver's seat, not the large corporate interests. That makes sense, doesn't it? I mean we're the party of the People aren't we?

Well sadly, that scenario only happens in my dreams. In fact they used their impressive credentials and swollen crania to take the clearly bad existing third party driven system and made it infinitely worse. Old system provided tax subsidies? We'll provide massive cash subsidies. Old system stuck it to private companies? We'll make it a tax and stick to to our kids and grand-kids. Old system incented the insured to overconsume? We'll do that for a group that has a virtually unlimited demand for end stage healthcare exotica[i].

Washington is not completely bereft of people with brains that are loaded with logic software and some of them, most notably that right winger, The Monster Barry Goldwater asked some hard questions. Questions like: "so how much is all this hope and change gonna cost?" (they didn't actually say H&C, but they thought it). The Deputy Dawgs of the CBO, the OMB, the Accounting Firms, the Actuaries and half the faculty of Harvard dutifully trooped in and divided one number by a bunch of other numbers, carried the remainders, summed whole columns of historical numbers congealed from other numbers with out making a single arithmetical error and announced portentiously: "The Lord thy God Y'aalweh hath created a balm of Geezerad, comfort for Rachet Jawed Feebs everywhere. This Great Wonder and Sign from progressive Heaven shall not cost 10.7 billion over 24 years, neither will it cost 14.098 Billion over 32 years. But verily we say unto you it wil cost precisely 12 Billion shekels over 25 years. And Henry Wallace looking down from heaven pronounced it 'Progressive' and there were signs and wonders throughout the land: Watts, Detroit, Harlem were burned to the ground by a righteous God - wait, no, wrong testament.

And now we come to my point. George Stigler was a young economist at Chicago fascinated by 'hope and change' projects. He took a look at the precise cost estimates provided by the Wise Dawgs and wrote a brief little paper. He told me later that he almost didn't even put any numbers or equations in the paper, so simple was the concept, but he was sending it to an economics journal and they like gobbledy gook, so he threw some in. Essentially what he said was this: "My Momma taught me that when you git somethin' you don't pay for, you piss it away. This barf-fest will cost at least ten times what the deputy dawgs say it will. 'nuff said." And it did and in 1982 little Georgie Stigler won the Nobel Prize for Economics in part for channeling his Momma.

You see all Ya'allweh's economists and all Ya'allweh's actuaries and sycophantic newspaper editors and university professors and accountants and actuaries failed to recognize that the implementation of the Medicare "reform" would radically change the behavior of consumers and providers in ways that would make nonsense of all of their carefully tabulated numbers. Because of course, all of their equations and relationships and models were based on a different consumer and economic logic. Change the logic and all bets are off. They failed to realize this despite the fact that the reason they had proposed this 'reform' was to cope with the mess that they were now trying to replicate. Thus the most brilliant experts in the field that the world had ever seen boldly marched into the Slough of Intellectual Despond and sank without a trace under the bemused gaze of Georgie Stigler's Momma sitting high and dry in a boat "they shoulda' used a boat. Don't they know that you need a boat? What dolts."

And now fast forward to Hope 'n Change 2010. The same portentous progressive experts are proposing the same sorts of radical changes to economic arrangements and the same Deputy Dawgs are providing precise estimates based on an old reality that the new policy sweeps away[ii]. One wonders why they don't just wheel out the 1965 numbers and add a few zeros.

And the long stupid arm of past policy blunders reaches its bony hand towards us motioning as if to say: I have only just begun to screw with you.

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[i] In Stupidity Studies circles attempting to fix a previous policy blunder by making the same policy blunder is known as a “Dumb Over”

[ii] Technically, this is a Dumb-Dumb-Dumb-Dumb-Over or DumbO4 in scientific notation. FDR’s mistake was Dumb 1, LBJ’s Medicare was Dumb 2, GWB’s Medicare Drug was Dumb 3 and Obamacare would be Dumb 4. A DumbO4 is the rarest phenomenon in Stupidity Studies so rival teams of Stupidity Scholars are fighting pitched battles in the streets of Washington DC over who gets the right to dissect Obama, Pelosi and Reid’s brains when they die.

Investors now consider US a greater default risk than Coca Cola

All this hope and change has wrecked our credit rating. Money graf.

Trading in the credit-default swap market this week shows that investors now view a default by the U.S. Treasury as more likely than a default by the Coca-Cola Company. Until very recently, this scenario seemed about as likely as Coke winning a taste infringement suit against Coke Zero. Now the United States has taken its place next to Italy and Spain in a special club that no major country wants to join -- countries whose debt is considered less safe than that of Blue Chip businesses

Hawaii votes down same sex marriage

Stupid cousin marrying right wing volcano-billies.

Correction: they won't even allow same sex unions. Mahalo, ya'all.

On perversion

Merriam Webster defines Perverted as "Corrupt"which is defined as "to change from good to bad in morals, manners or actions", particularly sexual.

Pornography is clearly a perversion. It is the publicizing of the private, the trading on what is a personal, private union between man and woman and no matter how 'tastefully' it is done it is wrong. Sadly it is all too common. Recently McGill University researchers tried to set up a study to estimate the impact of the consumption of pornography. They couldn't find enough men who had not been exposed to porn to establish a valid control group.

And to my shame, I am certainly no exception to the current urban legend that "all men watch porn".

Yet while I consider Porn perversion and repent of it, there is a much greater perversion, a much crueler act than any depicted on the seamier side streets of the internet.

Jesus was stripped, flogged, spat upon and mocked - the Creator was humiliated in every way that he could be by his creations. Yet none of this caused even a tiny fraction of the agony that he experienced when his beloved, his Abba, Father abandoned him. "My God! My God! Why have you forsaken me?" is the most heart-rending, piercing phrase in the English language.

And Jesus' anguish at the Father's indifference toward him points the way to the greatest perversion of all: indifference by one's beloved. To feel the cold, grey dead gaze of those who promised to love and abide with you. To hear the resentful sigh, to feel the tensing and withdrawal from embrace. To feel like a commodity, a used up vessel is the greatest horror a spouse can experience. And the greatest perversion one can commit.

I believe our churches are stacked to the rafters with this type of 'holy pervert'. Thousands of Christian marriages founder every day on these rocks. And the sad thing is, that unlike the consumer of pornography who is denounced without ceasing from the pulpit, often they don't even realize their sin.

Stunned Wall Street doesn't want war with Obama

Hope and change is turning into flail and change. Attacking the investor class is sooo not useful at the long flat trough of the "Great Recession".

What do you call it when a statist puts his political survival ahead of the economic welfare of the nation?

Another 'learning' from FDR.

Heckuva Job, Brownie!

Obama perpetuates myth that GWB was a free marketer

Here. If only.....

Oh Good Grief

Mark Halperin reports Obama believes "the press is against me". Sob!

Heat. Kitchen. Out.

The Collapse of the Income Tax

For the first quarter of the fiscal year 2010 personal income tax revenue was 19% less than FY 2009, 24% less than 2008 and 22% less than President Obama's own budget forecast. See here.

The 2009 decline was due to the recession. In contrast, the 2010 decline is largely due to the massive crisis of confidence provoked by all this Hope and Change.

Boy what I wouldn't give for another "Decade of Greed".

Magnificent

I took a walk tonight. A cold, clear, still moonlit night. The air seems particularly clean and clear on a night like this. Down past the Seminary, through the College Commons, past the high school, in between the Parish buildings. It is good to be cold, to feel, to be alive.

As I walked up our lawn, frozen, icy grass crackling underfoot I spied a piece of my handiwork from Sunday. A 10 by 5 inch patch of gleaming copper above our doorway. I had spent a good part of the day stripping, scraping and buffing and it shone in the moonlight.

It reminded me of our lives. We come into this world already spattered by the mire and gore of sin, we add more and more layers until we come to Christ. Then, with His guarantee of complete cleansing He starts us on the laborious task of stripping and chipping and scraping the filth, the sin off. I fall and spatter myself with more dirt. I sigh, pick up my scraper and start chipping away again.

But that's what faith is. Of course God gives us faith and faith is a choice we make, but it is also an act, indeed an activity that we pursue daily. With time it becomes simpler, more normal but it never, ever becomes easy. If we are diligent and seek after holiness then eventually by God's grace some of the pure, new metal shines through. Then people can see something other than our sin, they can see through in spots to who we really are, who we are becoming.

And then at the end, when we pass from this world into the next and come before God he will strip away all of the ugliness that is left and we will stand gleaming for all to see. That day will be cool. No not cool, cool is such a smug, sophomoric word.

That day will be magnificent.

How do you know what you know 5

More fake "facts" from the IPCC. Key technical note: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a UN chartered organization tasked to making sure that the 'science' that the UN and governments use to make policy is credible and reflects the consensus opinion of the global scientific establishment. Suddenly sentient journalists are finding that many IPCC assertions have no basis in science but instead were spin or based upon activist "studies" that haven't been vetted by credible scientific organizations.

Here's another one.

So how DO you know what you know?

Abe Foxman and the critical unseriousness of the Jewish Left

Mark Steyn points out that in an era of vicious anti-semitism, attacking Rush Limbaugh, one of the best friends Israel and Jews have today is barking mad. Abe Foxman and the Anti-Defamation league should be ashamed of themselves.

One of the many money grafs:

Abe Foxman is a leftist, and clearly, Rush is not to his taste politically. But he ought to be able to recognize that on certain issues, Rush is the best defender that this country has. And Abe Foxman is a lot like what my friend Ezra Levant up in Canada calls "the official Jews." He calls them "official Jews." They're people who belong to liberal Jew— official liberal Jewish organizations who are never there on any of the key issues and want to obsess with peripheral, irrelevant issues of no consequence for the Jewish people. And that is exactly what Abe Foxman did. And it would be funny if we hadn't seen, across the Western world, the biggest resurgence in anti-Semitism since the second World War. What does Abe Foxman have to say about that? What does Abe Foxman have to say about the demonstration in Fort Lauderdale last year where people are doing — where demonstrators are doing oven jokes? What does Abe Foxman have to say about the American who was visiting the East End of London on Holocaust Day last year and touring parts of the old Jewish East End and had concrete thrown at them and were told, "If you go any further, you're gonna die," and had to be taken to hospital. What does Abe Foxman have to say when a soccer match between Sweden and Israel is scheduled for the stadium in Malmo, and they have to play it behind closed doors to an empty — a tennis match, I beg your pardon, tennis. They have to play it in an empty stadium, because if they open the doors to people in Malmo, Sweden, they'd want to kill the Israeli tennis players. What do they — what does Abe Foxman have to say when people are marching through the streets of Calgary, Alberta, shouting, "Death to the Jews"? A timeless slogan, a timeless slogan, admittedly, but not one hitherto associated with the Rocky Mountains.

Why do our schools do so poorly?

John Hood Points out that it's not just private vs. public, it's competition vs. no competition. He summarizes what the "Civilized World" does. Interesting, the Obami want us to have (inferior on outcomes) European health care but they'll die at the barricades to protect us from (superior on the outcomes) European education policy.

The Choice of the World [John Hood]

Periodically I like to peruse the book of education data published annually by theOrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development. While the education establishment often cites international competition as a reason for American taxpayers to fork over more and more money, rarely do our educrats express any real curiosity about why students in other developed countries so often outperform American students, particularly at the high-school level.

It certainly isn't a product of greater public investment. America spends more tax dollars per pupil on education than almost every other country on the planet. Cultural differences, higher academic standards, and less psycho-babble in the training of teachers are some of the factors explaining the difference. Another fact to keep in mind is that many of the OECD countries whose high-school students outperform American kids provide parents more choice among tax-subsidized schools.

According to the most recent data, for example, a majority of high-schoolers in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Chile attend private schools, usually with a tax subsidy of one kind or another. About half of British and Korean students, one-third of French and Japanese students, and one-quarter of New Zealand and Australian students enroll in private high schools, as well. Fewer than 10 percent of U.S. students do so — though polls show that many would opt for private high schools if given the choice.

Let's do it.

Lets see: pushing for lower outcome medical policy and fighting higher outcome education policy. If I didn't know better, I'd be forced to conclude that the Left is more interested in power than people. That can't be true can it? I mean the Chicago politicians that run the White House come from a long line of moral giants. Towering, principled leaders. Don't they? Well don't they?

Tithe Eaters?

I recently compared the membership directory of my Church to the one from 1980. It turns out that today there are 33% more staff for a solidly evangelical church that has roughly the same membership and attendance as back then. To be fair, the Church has two more services and a flourishing Wednesday night program, none of which existed in 1980. But I couldn’t help but be struck by the difference between my church’s historical staffing performance and that of other industries that I am familiar with. Had we been a typical manufacturer, we would be doing the same tasks with one third the staff of 1980[1]. Had we been Wal Mart, we would have used only one fifth of the staff to get the same work done[2], the average bank, half[3].

Now Church is not Wal Mart and a manufacturer’s goal is not God’s. But it is a commonly observed characteristic of Churches that while people work hard and often long, the intensity and focus typical of well run investor owned organizations is lacking. There is a carelessness with time if not money that one doesn’t normally experience in well run private businesses. Why should this be? After all, the Church’s mission is infinitely more important than any businesses’. And any resources the Church can save from its daily operations can be invested in Kingdom efforts that have a far greater return than T Bills. So why do private businesses do more with less each and every year and Churches and Christian schools don’t?

Institutional Integrity

I believe that while Churches are focused on individual integrity they tend to struggle with institutional integrity. In my definition, institutional Integrity is the commitment that an organization makes to the achievement of a specific goal. Whatever you believe about its ‘morality’ Wal Mart exhibits a high level of institutional integrity. Sam Walton founded his business because he wanted to bring low priced brand name merchandise to small towns, just like the big cities. Since then, “Every Day Low Prices” for common people has been Wal Mart’s (and Sam’s Club’s) singular focus. And they’ve delivered – largely due to Wal Mart’s unceasing focus on cost reduction, the price of the things that Americans use every day has fallen dramatically. Everything Wal Mart does is focused on lowering costs to the consumer. For example, a friend of mine was an executive with a (soon to be bankrupt) specialty retailer. He tells of going to a conference at a tropical resort: as was customary, he took a room at a luxury hotel. His two counterparts from Wal Mart – by then the richest retailer in the history of the world, doubled up at a discount motel.

By contrast, while all Churches have goals, they generally don’t look upon the resources that they command with the hard-nosed perspective of an investor. We aren’t asking: “Where can we deploy these resources for highest impact for the kingdom? Where can we use technology or technique to become much more productive? Instead we tend to spread our efforts like peanut butter over many activities to please influential parishioners and givers. We don’t seek continuous improvement that allows us to do more with less. We react rather than pursue the goal.

We management consultants often note that the most successful companies - the ones with the most institutional integrity and commitment towards their goal - are seldom the most pleasant places to work. These companies have a sense of ‘driven-ness’ a commitment to excel against a specific goal that comes from inside the institution and the people themselves. It’s often exhausting to work for such a company because doing the best for the goal often takes a lot out of employees.

I’m not saying that the staff at my Church don’t work hard because they do. But the lack of focus on productivity, the notion that we must get more done with less each year so that we’ll grow and have more to share with others is as foreign to Church as it is integral to business. And it results in wasted effort. Effort that could be diverted to higher impact ministries. Wasted money that could better spent elsewhere. We seem to be comfortable with being comfortable. Because we don’t challenge ourselves to do more with less, we end up doing less with more. Slowly, inexorably, our Churches become Tithe Eaters, consuming the resources that God has given us to expand the Kingdom for our own comfort, our own ease.

The Parable of the talents sets the standard: The rich man gave money to three men. The two that he praised as “good and faithful servants” doubled the money they had been entrusted. The wicked servant merely preserved the principal, failing to earn even a moneylender’s interest. I fear that many of our Christian institutions are doing even worse than the wicked servant: returning even less than we are given.

It’s time to ask not only are we doing God’s will but are we doing it more productively each year.

It’s time to stop being Tithe Eaters.

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[1] Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod4.pdf

[2] The Power of Productivity, McKinsey Global Institute

[3] Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prin2.t02.htm

Frank Rich: Fearing for the "One"

I like Frank Rich. Ever since he branched out from Broadway the NYT editorial page has been – how shall I put this? So comical? Operatic? Fantastical? Thespian? Or my all time mot juste: Burlesque.

I particularly like him citing JFK to BHO. JFK: a politician to the right of GWB. A tax cutter. A man with a decisive pro-American foreign policy. A man who believed in color blindness. Hey! Waitaminit, this Richy Rich guy is starting to make sense.

Hey Mikey! We like it!

When FR starts (accidentally, yes) citing JFK as a role model for BHO, you know that there is Hope for Change.

Teleprompters at Elementary Schools

BHO needs teleprompters to speak at an Elementary school.

'nuff said.

Addition: BHO is getting waaay too much attention from John Stewart these days.

Got Kids?

Amazed at how expensive and ineffective their teachers are? Here’s some free help – from a guy who actually knows what he’s talking about.

The Khan Academy

There’s an earthquake coming. And the wails from all the redundant faculty will be pitiful to hear.

Stop the State!

Or so the Economist says. Now. 14 months ago they were whooping up the age of Obama, which any sentient boob could have predicted was a statist age without parallel. These guys really don't have much self awareness do they?

Must be an English thing.

Thank My Lucky Scars

I was scraping paint on an unusual 45F day in St. Louis. I dropped my glasses and a lense popped out. All the Dad's kids and all the Dad's wives couldn't find it. I was discouraged. So I took a walk. A walk fogged by my poor eyesight. Another weakness. Another scar.

But I was listening to music and the Foo Fighters (once again, what is it about those guys?) said "thank my lucky scars". And I stopped.

Of course. As I walked in a 20-100 fog I could see the richness, the depth, the beauty of the world around me. I have teens and while they are wonderful kids, they see the world in such flat, prosaic tones. It takes time, pain, indeed, scars to see the world in all it's glory. The way God meant it to be seen.

And to see God's redemptive plan. To understand the incredible love of Jesus Christ, one must be a sinner. A real sinner. Not a "oops! I gossiped" or "criminy! I said a bad word" sinner, but someone like me who has done things that he is truly ashamed of. Then God's mercy really means something.

Only through that do you learn how to thank your lucky scars.

Note: Originally I posted this as "count" my lucky scars - it's count my blessings and thank my lucky scars. I can be such a twit.

The Islamicization of the World

The inimitable Mark Steyn in an important post. Here's the money graf from an interview with an Iranian witness in Geert Wilder's "hate" trial in the Netherlands:

You said the Wilders Trial reminds you of justice in your country of origin, Iran. Is that not somewhat exaggerated?

“The Netherlands, of course, is not comparable with Iran, but it's about perception. If you cannot say that Islam is a backward religion and that Mohammed is a criminal, then you are living in an Islamic country, my friend, because there also you cannot say such things. Here I'm free to say that Christ was a faggot* and Mary was a whore, but apparently I should stay off of Mohammed.”

Definitely worth a read, lads.

China has 32 Million more young men than young women

Abortion is such a good thing for women. A liberal sacrament, really.

How do you know what you know 5

The "Drug Enforcement Establishment" and main stream "media" are all in a tizzy about nonexistent teen "Pharm Parties".

All the big news outlets are doing it!

So how DO you know what you know?

Any government that can't control its public employee unions is doomed

And any political party who can't is doubly doomed. John Steele Gordon reflects on this increasingly urgent and brutal reality.

Most frequent outsider to visit the White House? Andy Stern, President of SEIU.

Our President: Detached and floating away

The irrepressible Mark Steyn has written the classic Epitaph on the Obama Presidency three whole years before it most likely will end. Money graf:

The most striking aspect of his performance was how unhappy he looked, as if he doesn’t enjoy the job. You can understand why. He ran as something he’s not, and never has been: a post-partisan, centrist, transformative healer. That’d be a difficult trick to pull off even for somebody with any prior executive experience, someone who’d actually run something, like a state, or even a town, or even a commercial fishing operation, like that poor chillbilly boob Sarah Palin. At one point late in the 2008 campaign, when someone suggested that if Governor Palin was “unqualified” then surely he was too, Obama pointed out as evidence to the contrary his ability to run such an effective campaign. In other words, running for president was his main qualification for being president.